South Africa’s Pivotal Election: ANC Risks Losing Majority

South Africans are heading to the polls in what is being described as the most crucial election since the end of apartheid in 1994. With more than 27 million registered voters, the election is highlighting a growing political fragmentation in the country after 30 years of democracy.

A record 70 parties and 11 independents are vying for seats in parliament and nine provincial legislatures, showcasing a shift away from the traditional big parties. Political analyst Richard Calland noted that this surge in parties could be a sign of disillusionment with the old system or simply a desire for new opportunities in parliament.

The ruling African National Congress (ANC), in power since the days of Nelson Mandela, is facing a tough battle as opinion polls suggest it may lose its parliamentary majority for the first time. This could force the ANC into a coalition government with one or more opposition parties, marking a significant shift in South African politics.

The campaign has been dominated by issues such as widespread corruption, high unemployment rates, deteriorating public services, and rising crime levels. The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), has formed a pact with 10 other parties in hopes of dislodging the ANC from power, but the ANC is still expected to remain the largest party.

Former President Jacob Zuma has also thrown a curveball into the election by forming a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), despite being barred from running for parliament due to a conviction for contempt of court. His party is expected to garner around 10% of the vote, especially in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where tensions have been high.

Overall, the election is seen as a critical moment for South Africa’s democracy, with voter registration highest among those aged 30 to 39. However, millions of eligible voters, especially those under 30, have chosen not to register, citing a lack of hope and economic exclusion as reasons for their disengagement.

As the country grapples with these challenges, the outcome of the election will determine the future direction of South Africa and whether it will continue on a path towards a more competitive and mature democracy or face further political fragmentation.