Tracking UK General Election Polls: Latest Averages and Seat Projections

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has set the date for the next UK general election on 4 July 2024. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party has been consistently leading in the polls since the beginning of 2022. The Guardian is closely monitoring the latest polling averages from all major British polling companies leading up to election day.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is not included in the data used by The Guardian in the polling chart, as its vote share in Great Britain-wide polls typically ranges between 2% and 4%. However, due to its concentrated support in Scotland, the SNP is expected to win more seats than other small parties with similar national vote shares, such as the Greens. Targeted polls in Scotland provide a better indication of the SNP’s potential performance in the upcoming election.

While polls offer insight into voting intentions, the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system ultimately determines the number of seats each party wins in parliament through individual races in 650 constituencies.

Seat projections vary, with Electoral Calculus providing one model based on polling and demographic data. Their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model aims to predict the party that will come out on top in each constituency based on factors like age, gender, and location.

However, translating poll numbers into seat projections is not straightforward in the UK’s electoral system. Factors such as the distribution of votes across constituencies can significantly impact the outcome. As the election approaches, the accuracy of polls in predicting the final result diminishes, especially in close races. Additionally, projecting seat counts from national polling may not accurately reflect the situation in Scotland or account for the unique presence of parties like the Liberal Democrats in certain constituencies.

The data presented by The Guardian includes a rolling 10-day average of party support in Great Britain-wide polls, excluding Northern Ireland. Seat projections are updated monthly by Electoral Calculus, incorporating polling and demographic data to estimate potential seat outcomes for each party.

As the election date draws nearer, the dynamics of the race will continue to evolve, making it crucial for voters and political observers to stay informed and engaged with the latest developments.